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A Prediction Market Trader Earned $436,000 from Wagers on Maduro's Downfall.
A trader profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from confidential information of American actions.
Market Movement in Wagers
Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the month's conclusion surged in the time leading up to Donald Trump announced on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody.
One account, which registered on the site recently and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436,000 from a starting bet of $32.5K.
It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.
Odds Fluctuate Before News Break
Market statistics shows that traders put the odds of a political change at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday.
However these probabilities had increased to over 10% by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the morning of January 3rd, indicating a sharp shift in market sentiment right before the official statement was made.
"This specific wager has all the signs of a transaction based on inside information," said Dennis Kelleher.
A handful of other traders also made tens of thousands of dollars from bets on the same outcome.
Regulatory Scrutiny Grows
Politicians are beginning to pay attention.
Proposed legislation put forward on the start of the week seeks to ban federal workers from making trades on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet.
Market Background
Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the past few years, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to politics.
The industry were examined under the Biden administration. However it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency.
Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the event betting industry.
An official representative for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."
Isaiah Williams
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